Monthly Archive for May, 2010

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Getting ready

Published on May 23, 2010, 9:43 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: , .

Monday and Friday had powerful midday reversals, but in-between was pretty ugly! So the bears got 3 out of 5 last week, and the entire week was a downer.

The strong move into the close on Friday does not look like it’s impressing anyone in Asia as their markets meander in the red. Oil and euro is down and US dollar is up. And as we saw last week, this can all change by the opening bell tomorrow. 8)

Last week all traders thought about was Greece and Europe and China and everything else beside what’s happening to the good old USA. But this week we get some news about us: housing, GDP, income and spending, besides the usual weekly jobless claims. Get the entire lowdown here: Stocks: Back to the U.S.A.

Monday has a reputation of being green….especially after options expiration. I’m still looking for more upside this week but also because we usually run up into a holiday weekend. Look for Friday to be light on volume.

Hope you had a wonderful weekend and see you on the playing field.

Thinking about Monday

Published on May 22, 2010, 9:06 pm in Trading. Closed Tags: .

Doing my scans after the market closed on Friday, I found 1380 bullish engulfing patterns vs 52 bearish engulfing patterns today. Not a bad day. Now, does this strength continue Monday? I think so…and maybe a bit more than just one day.

Some weekend reading:
Was the so-called flash crash a fluke, or not?.

Timmy’s got our back? Geithner tries to reassure China over US deficit.

The markets have relationship issues. Familiar Patterns.

Happy Hour Is Over: Fox Business Network Cancels Dayside Business Program. I knew it couldn’t last long after Rebecca got married and changed to that gothic black hair style. :twisted:

The Market is Crazy!

Published on May 20, 2010, 10:38 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed

That was a crazy day! Yes, I’m underwater with the longs I picked up yesterday, but my stops have not been hit….yet. I’m a bit nervous, but I have to stop it….that is what the market wants…get traders scared and bailing out….before the next big run!

Y’know, jobless claims were unexpectedly down today, but that was just a bear snack. This whole week has been about currencies…the euro specifically. The U.S. markets and crude oil have been moving tick for tick with the euro. And when the central banks intervened this afternoon, you could see the rebound in the markets as they bought the euro.

This has been an exhausting week. How about you?

Here’s one that caught my eye today: Big Red Flags Popping Up All Over The Place Now

I think I’ll wait for OpEx week to be over before making any changes. Sleep sounds good about now.
G’nite.

666

Published on May 19, 2010, 9:53 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , .

Last year in March, the S&P dropped down to 666 and it started a great bull run. Well, today, the Russell 2000 hit 666 as well. How about it….the start of another bull run?

I was stutter clicking today, afraid to go long, but my best wins are when I’m afraid to buy. Today was one of the best days I’ve had trading the ES to the long side. I also added some UCO C GTF….yes, to the long side. Position sizes are not large, but I will add to them if….no, when, they take off. :mrgreen:

Of course today’s heavy selling into the close gives me some trepidation, but I think we’re close to a bounce, if not a more sustained up move. While you’re waiting, here’s some notes to look over:
Commodities — the Crash You Didn’t Hear

Conspiracy of Banks Rigging States Came With Crash

Percent of Stocks Above 50 Day Moving Average Nearing February Lows

Jobless Claims tomorrow morning and optione expiration on Friday. Buckle up, time for a ride!

C’mon, let’s lose some money!

Published on May 18, 2010, 8:50 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed

The Leavitt Brothers come up with a review of what’s to come for the next couple of days based on the Put/Call ratio.

The market conspires to cause the most pain, to cause the most number of people to lose the most amount of money.

Read all about it: Using Put/Call Open-Interest to Predict the Rest of the Week

Remember, after Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says W T F . . .

Algorithms gone mad!

Published on May 18, 2010, 8:27 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed

Did you see that? Nobody cares about stocks….it’s all about currencies, specifically the euro. Indexes moved tick for tick with the euro…as did oil! WTF! Nothing logical…nothing technical…just watch the euro.

If you want to know more about the euro and sharing currency across borders, read this: Germany, Greece and Exiting the Eurozone

And why is it that short sellers are always blamed for “problems” in the market? Aren’t shorts needed for the other side of a long transaction? Don’t the shorts provide liquidity to the market? Are markets supposed to go only up and never down? Germany Planning Sharp Curbs On Some Kinds of Short Selling

We need a Rally Monkey!

Not much, but still up!

Published on May 17, 2010, 9:34 pm in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

As I tweeted today, a down Friday equals an up Monday! And that has held for an entire year. Also Stock Trader’s Almanac said “Monday before May expiration, Dow up 19 of last 21.” …which makes it 20 out of 22 now. But that’s not all, “May Expiration Friday, Dow up 5 of last 6! This could be a good week. :mrgreen:

The market is sure spastic, but I’m still looking for some pressure to the upside, as could be seen this afternoon. That was a big move off the lows. But again, futures are showing their negative side….but then again, China hasn’t opened yet. And don’t forget yesterday’s big overnight reversal.

I added to my UCO position as I’m still looking for support around $10. It did overshoot, so I added. I have a stop under today’s low now. Here’s a couple of articles I found today on oil:
Why Oil Prices Are Plunging Despite the Gulf Spill

China Studies Using FX Reserves to Exchange for Oil

And another interesting story:
How P&G Plunge Derailed One Investor

Ok, I better update my TCnet and do some scans!

Got Oil?

Published on May 16, 2010, 7:55 pm in Opinions and Trading. Closed Tags: , , , , , , , .

With oil so much in the news, I would think that it should be hitting bottom soon…say, $70 maybe? I don’t trade the crude oil futures, so like I said a couple days ago, I’ve added USO UCO into the watchlist….I even nibbled a bit on UCO already. It looks like $10 has been a resistance/support area before.

Here’s a note on USO: Is This Oil ETF Ready For a Bounce? USO

After doing my scans this evening I see a lot of “evening star” setups, which generally means those particular stocks are going down. On the other side, I also found a greater number of hammers, looking for a reversal up on those stocks. Of course, as in all candlesticks signals, we need confirmation in the next candle, no matter which direction you think they may go.

Futures this evening are looking tired with ES down 6 points and YM down 60 points, and oil futures just about where they closed Friday. I went into the weekend on the long side, but in very small positions of UCO SSO and C. Remember, for the past year a down Friday is followed by an up Monday. :mrgreen:

I got some additional reading material for you today:
Impossible Wall Street Fixes

Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause One

The Huge Difference Between The “Flash Crash” And The Crash Of ’87

5 things we still don’t know about the market plunge

Happy trading and I’ll see you in the market!

Weekend Reading…

Published on May 15, 2010, 7:44 pm in Opinions. Closed

If you’re just browsing the web this weekend, here’s some interesting reading that may get you thinking….
Euro’s woes cast long shadow

Technically speaking….
Steadily Rising Stock Market Prices Masking Steadily Worsening Technicals

Big seller in market drop ID’ed as Waddell & Reed. Does he have fat fingers?

72 banks closed this year!

Detroit Shrinks Itself, Historic Homes and All

The bulls still have something to look forward to….
S&P 500 May Surpass April High After Rout: Technical Analysis

Did you know China has entered a bear market?
Will China’s Bubble Bring Everyone Down?

A short lesson in Dow Theory:
A Brief Market Update

I told you so….

Published on May 13, 2010, 10:37 pm in Tools and Trading. Closed Tags: , , .

This is one of those times, rare indeed, when I can say, “I told you so.” It started in the pre-market and the markets meandered in a fairly small range….until 3PM, and then the trap door opened and down we went. I was out most of the day so I didn’t get a chance to play any of the inverse ETFs I mentioned yesterday. But, on my return just about 3PM, I did have a chance to place an ES short for a few points…so it was a good day! :D

I’m thinking this downward pressure will stick around for a day or few, but we will be setting up for another bull run. I’m getting real interested in oil. If you’re not a futures trader with CL or QM, the oil e-mini, you may want to put the oil-related ETFS like: USO DBO DIG and UCO in your watchlist. Or maybe some of the oil service companies like VLO and OXY. Just watch oil and see if we get some support around the February low, say in the $72 – $70 range.

On another note, I finally made it to Facebook. So come and visit me and become a friend. I promise I’ll get this figured out and reciprocate! :mrgreen: